Ukraine industrial output falls 1.1% yoy in September

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 1.1% yoy in September
after dropping 1.7% yoy in August, the State Statistics Service reported on
Oct. 24. Seasonally adjusted output declined 0.1% m/m. In 9M19, industrial output
didn’t change on a year-on-year basis.

Manufacturing output shrunk 1.2% yoy in September
(after a 4.1% yoy decline in August). In particular, the decline in metallurgy
deepened to 5.4% yoy (from a 3.2% yoy slide in August). Machinery production
shrank 3.6% yoy (vs. 4.7% yoy in August). Meanwhile, food production increased
1.6% yoy (vs. a 3.2% yoy fall in August).

Mining output declined 2.2% yoy in September after
growing 2.7% yoy in August. In particular, iron ore production slid 1.0% yoy
(vs. a 9.2% yoy surge in August).

At the same time, coal output dropped 1.5% yoy and oil
and natural gas production fell 0.5% yoy. Production of electricity and natural
gas slid 1.0% yoy in September (vs. 3.1% yoy growth in August).

Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in the
Zakarpattia (-30.7% yoy), Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-14.0% yoy), and
Khmelnytskiy (-13.0% yoy) regions. Growth was strongest in the Odesa (18.1%
yoy), Kirovohrad (12.6% yoy) and  Ternopil (9.0% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Despite the
slower decline in output, the situation in Ukraine’s industry doesn’t look
promising at all. None of the sectors is able to demonstrate sustained
advancement during several months.

We see no chance for Ukraine’s industrial output to
advance significantly in 4Q19. We expect Ukraine’s industrial output to show
about zero growth in 2019 (vs. 1.6% yoy growth in 2018).