Ukraine industrial output grows 4.8% yoy in March

Ukraine’s industrial output slowed down to +4.8% yoy in March compared to 7.6% yoy in the prior month, according to an UkrStat report on April 21. Industrial growth adjusted for calendar days was 4.2% yoy in March compared to 4.9% yoy in February. For 3M16, industry increased 3.7% yoy.

Metals and machinery output in March sped up to 19.1% yoy and 8.7% yoy, respectively, compared to 14.2% yoy and 3.9% yoy in the prior month.  Mining output slowed (5.7% yoy compared to 10.6% yoy in the prior month) while declining rates for chemical production remained almost unchanged (-7.4% yoy vs. -8.0% yoy). Utilities output declined 2.3% yoy in March after rising 1.6% yoy in February.

Industrial output in the Luhansk region surged 2.7x in March while Donetsk output grew 10.1% yoy.  

Alexander Paraschiy: Industry has demonstrated strong performance for two months in row already,  driven by recovering resource prices on the global markets. In particular, the IMF’s metal price index increased 5.0% m/m in February and 6.5% m/m in March.  In light of steady, positive signals from external markets, we anticipate positive tendencies with industrial production to maintain themselves at least till June 2016. We expect growth to slow down somewhat in 2H16, at least due to a stronger comparative base. Resource price prospects for 2H16 are also uncertain. In light of such tendencies, we are revising our 2016 industrial output forecast to +2.0% yoy, compared to 0.7% yoy growth we estimated previously.