Ukraine industrial output growth slows to 5% in May

Ukraine’s industrial output increased 5.4% yoy in May
slowing from 13.0% yoy growth in April, the State Statistics Service reported
on June 24. Seasonally adjusted output declined 3.0% m/m in May.

 

In 5M21, industrial output increased 2.2% yoy (vs.
8.1% yoy decline in 5M20).

 

Manufacturing output surged 6.3% yoy in May (after an
18.0% yoy surge in April). In particular, the output in metallurgy slowed to
12.2% yoy growth (from 29.1% yoy jump in April), the machinery output advanced
28.5% yoy (vs. 41.0% yoy in April).  At the same time, food production
dropped 13.3% yoy, pharmaceuticals declined 11.9% yoy, coke and oil production
slid 0.6% yoy.

 

Mining sector’s production accelerated to 8.0% yoy
growth (from 6.9% yoy growth in April). In particular, coal production surged
60.9% yoy, iron ore production advanced 11.6% yoy. Meanwhile, oil and gas
production declined 3.3% yoy.

 

The supply of electricity & natural gas declined
3.5% yoy (vs. 4.5% yoy growth in April). 

 

Regionally, the highest industrial growth in May was
observed in Volyn (24.5% yoy%), Mykolayiv (22.9% yoy) and Dnipropetrovsk (20.7%
yoy). Six out of 25 regions posted a decline of industrial output. It dropped
the most in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-40.7% yoy), Kirovohrad (-19.6% yoy)
and Kherson (-14.3% yoy) regions.

 

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: It looks
like it’s going to be quite a long road to recovery for Ukrainian industry
after the pandemic’s havoc. The output growth in May doesn’t look impressive at
all given the very low comparative base of the previous year (-12.5% yoy).

 

The growth in metallurgy and machinery was quite good,
but it was blurred by a significant decline in food and pharmaceuticals output.
The recovery in mining is continuing prompted by good demand for iron ore.

 

We expect industrial output to increase around 4%
yoy in 2021 (vs. a 4.5% yoy decline in 2020).