Ukraine industrial output speeds up to 3.7% in November

Ukraine’s industrial output sped up to 3.7% yoy growth in November (from 0.8% yoy growth in October) owing to machinery, metals and mining, according to official statistics released on Dec. 21. Machinery production grew 6.9% yoy (2.5% yoy in October), metals rose 4.9% yoy (2.4% yoy in October) and mining increased 3.3% yoy (-1.9% yoy in October). Utility growth rates were almost unchanged from last month (3.5% yoy vs. 3.7% yoy in October).  Chemicals deepened their decline to -6.4% yoy from -5.2% yoy in the prior month.

Industrial output grew 2.1% yoy in 11M16.

Alexander Paraschiy: Volatility is the best term that describes industrial output tendencies in 2016. After a sharp slowdown in October, industry suddenly accelerated in November, finally reflecting improving metal prices. Although the spread of monthly growth rates is large, the general tendency is still in line with our initial estimate that output will increase 2.0% yoy by the end of 2016.

For 2017, we expect industry performing close to current levels at 1.8% yoy growth. Disregarding the recent growth in metal prices, we do not expect this trend to continue in 2017. Against this backdrop, we see industrial growth possibly even slowing on the back of a higher comparative base.