Ukraine industrial production falls 5.7% in June

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 5.7% yoy in June, widening the 6M13 drop to 5.3% yoy from 5.2% yoy in 5M13, according to state statistics released on July 17. Core industries kept declining in June: chemicals -22.1% yoy, machinery -10.3% yoy, metallurgy -6.3% yoy, mining -1.6% yoy and energy -1.5% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The June output decline exceeded our expectations (we estimated nearly a 2% decline throughout the month). Even though the June number (-5.7%) looks better than May (-9.3%), we can hardly talk about an improving tendency as external demand for Ukraine’s industrial products remain weak. Against this backdrop, we are downgrading our 2013 estimate to -2.5% yoy (from -1.5% yoy) but still anticipating a better industry performance closer to the year end.