Ukraine industry declines 16.3% in November

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 16.3% yoy in November, the same exact rate as in the prior month, Ukrstat reported on Dec. 18. The November decline in mining and chemical production worsened to -28.5% yoy (from -24.9% yoy in October) and -21.4% yoy (-10.6% yoy), respectively. Yet improvement occurred in utilities (-8.4% yoy vs. -16.5% yoy in October), metals (-20.1% yoy vs. -21.1% yoy) and machinery (-23.6% yoy vs. -26.1% yoy). Output in the war-torn Luhansk region worsened to -82% yoy (from -80% yoy in October) while the industrial production decelerated slightly in the Donetsk region to -51.3% yoy (from -55.2% yoy in October).

Alexander Paraschiy: Ukraine’s industrial production decline has stabilized for three consecutive months, during which rates remained flat. Certainly, two-digit declines are harmful for an economy but we interpret this trend as a bottoming out. Until June 2015, the statistical effect of high comparative base will be apparent since eastern Donbas will not produce anything for Ukraine in the near future. However, we don’t see industry getting any worse from now on.

Against this backdrop, we estimate 2014 will conclude at a 10.6% yoy decline in industrial output. For 2015, we project a 4.8% yoy drop for all of Ukraine and a 1.1% improvement net of occupied Donbas.