Ukraine industry must consider alternatives to Azov Sea ports, expert says

Russia’s current blockade of the Azov Sea will shut
down maritime traffic to the Ukraine’s Azov Sea ports of Berdiansk and
Mariupol, Andriy Klymenko, the chief editor of the blackseanews.net news site,
said in an interview with the apostrophe.ua news site published on Jan. 11. As
a result, industries situated in eastern Ukraine should already be considering
alternative transit routes through the ports of Kherson, Mykolayiv and Odesa,
he said.

“Our railroad goes through Volnovakha, which is almost
the frontlines” of the Donbas war, said Klymenko, who also serves as the head
of the supervisory board of the Foreign Affairs Maidan Fund. “If an escalation
occurs there, then that railroad connection will be closed. An audit needs to
be conducted of alternative routes. This is very important because losing the
production of Mariupol and Berdiansk is a huge loss in GDP. We send 30%-40% of
our metal exports from there. This is a loss of 1-2% of the nation’s GDP. We
need to consider this very seriously.”

Zenon Zawada: What this
confirms is that Russia has successfully expanded its hybrid war against
Ukraine by taking control of the Azov Sea. We agree with experts that
controlling Belarus will be the next step in further surrounding the Ukrainian
territory. Maritime traffic towards Odesa and Mykolayiv may also be targeted
next to strange the economy further. Strong parliamentary election results for
Russian-oriented forces in southeastern Ukraine this October will make them
vulnerable to Russian infiltration and plans to balkanize the territory.

Though it was first thought by the Western
establishment that sanctions would cause enough damage to the Russian economy
to prompt the leadership to withdraw from Ukraine (or cause a collapse), it’s
apparent now that Russia is prepared to withstand Western pressure in the mid-
to long-term (at least five years) to recapture control of the Ukrainian
territory.

This is bolstered by Germany’s support for the Nord
Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that will harm the Ukrainian economy. Russia is
also being encouraged by the rise of populist-nationalist forces in European
legislatures, which is certain to extend into the European Parliament elections
scheduled for May. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the momentum in this hybrid war
is in Russia’s favor at the moment.