Ukraine late crop yields 12-26% lower yoy as of October 8

Ukrainian farmers harvested 85% of planned areas as of October 8, Interfax reported, citing the Agriculture Ministry. The harvest so far has come to 36.3 mmt vs. an outlook for the total harvest of 46 mmt (-19% yoy). The ministry also provided an update on the yields of late crops: sunflower yields (with 88% of area already harvested) declined 12% yoy to 1.63 t/ha, corn yields (of 55% of area) decreased 26% yoy to 4.13 t/ha, and soybean yields fell 21% yoy to 1.59 t/ha. At the same time, the yield for sugar beet (collected from 46% of area) exceeded last year’s result by 2% to 35.7 t/ha. In separate news, Ukraine produced 0.48 mmt of beet sugar (-25% yoy), with 61 sugar plants starting production this season (vs. 72 plants a year ago) – Ukrsugar association told Interfax.

Alexander Paraschiy: Clear progress in late crop yields is observed as soon as the harvesting campaign moved from Ukraine’s drought hit southern regions (where KSG Agro [KSG PW], Sintal [SNPS GF] and Agroton [AGT PW] operate) to the north and west, into the areas of Industrial Milk (IMC PW), Astarta (AST PW) and Mriya (MAYA GF). We expect the latter three companies will show a minor decline in their yields compared to the 2011 bumper year, or even slight yield improvements in some crops. The latest sugar production data is supportive of our view that the domestic sugar market is becoming narrower, which can potentially allow Astarta and Mriya, the industry leaders, to capitalize on new cheap acquisitions.