Ukraine leaders to meet to reshuffle Cabinet, Lutsenko says

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc is ready for a reshuffling of the Cabinet of Ministers or parliamentary elections, Parliamentary Faction Head Yuriy Lutsenko told a political talk show on Dec. 28. The country is in a catastrophic economic situation and the way to deal with it is to change the government somehow, he said. The president and leaders of the Cabinet and parliament will meet to discuss the new government after it receives the next IMF tranche, “without which the country will simply fall apart,” he said. For the Poroshenko Bloc, it’s not critical for Arseniy Yatsenyuk to remain as prime minister, he said.

Zenon Zawada: It’s refreshing to see someone like Lutsenko, a member of the Poroshenko entourage, acknowledge the public dissatisfaction with the government. That’s a valuable first step. Yet the big question is whether the Cabinet can be reshuffled without the need for new elections. Such a reshuffling would have to be done based on party quotas, yet the People’s Front led by Yatsenyuk is essentially liquidated. Other parties will want to be able to claim the prime minister position, including the Poroshenko Bloc.

In essence, we see a minor Cabinet reshuffling in January as possible but not enough to tame the public dissatisfaction for long. We see a major Cabinet reshuffling as possible, yet difficult to execute successfully since disputes over the top positions are likely to arise. And we see the likelihood of parliamentary elections in the first quarter as slightly better than 50/50. The second big question is whether elections can be held amid ongoing Russian aggression, yet we think it’s possible if the president keeps a steady hand on the steering wheel. But we think the president will do all he can to avoid early parliamentary elections because his political support isn’t likely to improve and he might end up with an even more hostile parliament.