Ukraine leaning towards EU over Customs Union, ex-minister says

The Ukrainian government expects that the Russian Federation government will offer a proposal to become an observer to the Customs Union, said former Foreign Affairs Minister Petro Poroshenko on April 19, as reported by the Kommersant-Ukrayina newspaper. In addition, the Ukrainian government will be offered a natural gas discount “even without Ukraine’s full membership in the Customs Union,” he told the sixth annual Kyiv Security Forum. “And do you know what the answer will be from our side? The answer will be ‘no’ because the Ukrainian government, as before, has more hope for signing the Association Agreement,” Poroshenko said.

At the same forum, European Parliament MP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski warned the agreement won’t be signed unless Ukrainian authorities arrange for the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. “Many in Ukraine think that your geopolitical significance will compel the EU to sign the Association Agreement whatever the case,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer told the conference. “That’s a tremendous miscalculation from your side.”

Zenon Zawada: The saber-rattling is intensifying as the moment of truth draws closer for the Ukrainian government. Saryusz-Wolski is the vice president of the European People’s Party, which has a cooperation agreement with Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party. Therefore, his strong comments should come as no surprise. Neither is Pifer’s observation that the Ukrainian government has tested the EU’s patience, pushing it to the edge. What’s noteworthy is the emergence of Poroshenko, a leading Ukrainian businessman, as an interlocutor for the government in its relations not only with the West, but with the Ukrainian opposition. Poroshenko indicated this weekend his possible candidacy for the Kyiv City Council chair, which would be a compromise that could break the current impasse between the government and the opposition, paving the way for approving the necessary legislation in parliament to satisfy EU requirements.

If all the necessary legislation is approved, we believe the EU would be willing to overlook Tymoshenko’s imprisonment to sign the Association Agreement. However, it will have to be a convincing effort by the Ukrainian government, without any last-minute anti-democratic maneuvers, like throwing MPs out of parliament. That’s never guaranteed. Poroshenko mentioned an expected offer of Customs Union observer status to be presented at the May 28-29 meeting of the High Eurasian Economic Council in Kazakhstan. Yet just last week, Sergei Glazev, a key economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that observer status “doesn’t exist” and “wouldn’t offer anything.”