Ukraine lowers 2Q17 GDP growth estimate to 2.3% yoy
19 September 2017
Ukraine’s 2Q17 GDP grew 2.3% yoy instead of 2.4% yoy
reported previously (and 2.5% in 1Q17), the State Statistic Service of Ukraine
reported on Sept. 18. The main drivers were private consumption (6.6% yoy
growth vs. 2.6% yoy in 1Q17) and gross capital accumulation (strengthened to
23.7% yoy vs. 19.9% yoy in 1Q17). Government consumption dropped by 7.8% yoy
(from, 4.2% yoy growth in 1Q17). Exports fell 2.1% yoy (-0.4% yoy in
1Q17). Imports improved to 4.6% yoy from 2.9% yoy in the prior quarter. Nominal
GDP was reported at UAH 657 bln in 2Q17, 22.7% higher than a year ago.
Alexander Paraschiy: GDP growth
in 2Q17 remains impressive, even after the minor correction. As we suspected,
strengthening consumption and booming domestic investment stood behind this
trend. And all this happened despite broken relations with occupied Donbas and
a noticeable drop in industrial output in 1H17.
also look better than we anticipated. High export prices promise recovering
industrial output on the top of soaring consumption and investments. A lot will
depend on the grain harvest; however, we expect agri-production to be at least
flat, year-on-year. In all, we see high chances for GDP to grow faster than 2%
in 2017, compared to our initial projection of 1.9% growth this year.
