Ukraine may deport Saakashvili, protest leaders aim to reset government

Mikheil Saakashvili, the head of the New Forces Movement, can be deported by authorities for what the State Migration Service of Ukraine described on Oct. 24 as his ignoring the procedures to address his legal status. The Ukrainian government is also working to expel 20 Georgians who were granted residency in Ukraine when Saakashvili served as Odesa regional administration head for about 17 months starting May 2015, the Prosecutor General’s press service said the same day.

Meanwhile, Saakashvili’s alleged financier Koba Nakopia, a Georgian MP, has been denied entry to Ukraine for three years by the Security Service of Ukraine, as confirmed this week by the pravda.com.ua news site. Nakopia was denied entry when arriving at Kyiv Boryspil airport on Oct. 15.

The 20 Georgians identified by Ukrainian law enforcement are extremists who are working with Saakashvili to overthrow the government, Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko alleged on Oct. 24. He said the tent city protest being led by Saakashvili is being financed from overseas, without naming the source. “The right to peaceful protest doesn’t mean preparing for a violent overthrow, which has been started by a small group of people,” he said. “150-200 individuals are demanding only what they want, with the support of financing from abroad. I will prove that in my tenure.”

The tent city of protestors, mostly consisting of Donbas war veterans at present, reached its ninth day this morning with about 60 tents pitched in front of Ukraine’s parliament, blocking traffic on the adjacent street. The protest is being led by Saakashvili, who spent the night at the tent city, and MPs Yegor Sobolev and Semen Semenchenko, both of the pro-EU, youth-oriented Self-Reliance party. This morning, Saakashvili called for a demonstration this evening at the tent city’s stage to discuss legislation to be voted on when parliament convenes on Nov. 7. He said the tent city would be dismantled if the demands are met.
In his turn, Semenchenko made some controversial remarks when addressing a television talk show on Oct. 24 that hinted at a government overthrow. “Currently more and more people and civic organizations are joining us,” he said, as reported by the zik.ua news site. “So I predict that by the new year, the situation will change entirely. There will be a full reset of the government. We will see many people in jail who have been trading away Ukraine’s national interests under the cover of the war.”

Zenon Zawada: The situation between the government and protestors is growing increasingly tense. The president and his team are working hard to discredit the protestors as much as possible, with the president dismissing them yesterday as 30-40 protestors who won’t achieve anything. While we agree that their numbers are small, we would argue that a few hundred Donbas war veterans hold as much moral authority with the public as the current government, which is widely viewed as corrupt.

At this point, it’s apparent to us that the government and protestors aren’t going to find compromise anytime soon. The protest leaders are introducing new demands from the government with each passing day. For example, Saakashvili announced they want a new elections law approved once parliament convenes on Nov. 7, even though it already failed in three votes that occurred last week. So apparently they will keep demanding votes on the bill until it’s approved. Moreover, Semenchenko’s comments yesterday are extremely provocative considering no one has elected this group of activists to conduct “a full reset of government” while throwing many people in jail. This is the rhetoric of a military coup.
We believe the government is waiting for the protestors to make a critical mistake, such as a violent incident or infighting among themselves, that will provide the moral justification to use armed forces to take down the tent city with force. Such a pretext could emerge when the parliament votes in November to approve the second reading of the law on special status for occupied Donbas, which is violently opposed by nationalists and war veterans. The use of violence from their end to prevent the bill’s approval could serve as the needed pretext to use force to eliminate the tent city.

Whoever uses violence first to defeat the opponent will need an adequate moral justification as a pretext. Once that violent showdown happens however, it will merely hurt Ukraine’s credibility globally to the Kremlin’s advantage. If the violence spins out of control, then the Kremlin will certainly be ready to take advantage.