Ukraine monetary base grows 0.6% m/m in November

Ukraine’s monetary base grew 0.6% m/m in November
after rising 0.9% m/m in the prior month, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
reported on Dec. 10. For 11M17, the monetary base was still in the red at -0.7%
ytd.  Money supply increased 0.3% m/m (2.4% ytd for 11M17).

Alexander Paraschiy: Positive
interventions at the ForEx (USD 138.9 mln net) were the main source of money
formation in November. At the same time, Treasury residuals grew by 11.4%,
withdrawing UAH 5.5 bln from the system.

As of Dec. 1, Treasury residuals were reported at
UAH 54.1 bln, or 1.9% of GDP.  The large cash accumulations mean we will
see a substantial jump in the monetary base in December on the back of a surge
in public outlays. Against this backdrop, we still expect a 8.6% ytd monetary
base increase by the year end.