Ukraine parliament approves Association bills, delays Tymoshenko measure

Ukraine’s parliament approved on November 8 two key legislative items required for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, which involve reforms to the state prosecution and election reforms. However, parliament failed to consider perhaps the most important legislation, the Labunska bill, which would provide the conditions for arranging for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko through the courts. The first meeting of the working group to draft legislation for Tymoshenko’s release is scheduled to meet today, with the ruling majority ignoring opposition requests to meet this weekend. The opposition was given five out of 13 seats on the working group.

 

Parliamentary Chair Volodymyr Rybak signed on November 9 a resolution to hold an extraplenary parliamentary session on Wednesday, November 13, at which the first reading of the Tymoshenko release bill could be approved. However, any amendment tacked to the bill forces a vote for its second reading, with no sessions scheduled for the week. The diplomatic mission led by former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski is scheduled to report to the European Parliament on Ukraine’s readiness to sign the EU Association Agreement on November 14-15. The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled on November 18 to vote to approve the pact, which is scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit on November 28-29 in Vilnius.

 

Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov told reporters on November 9 that his government is doing everything possible to sign the agreement and its failure will be the fault of EU leaders. “Who is doing everything for the signing?,” he asked rhetorically. “But if someone – this applies to European politicians, above all – has the audacity to put on the scales of the country’s future a very doubtful demand regarding Tymoshenko, then they’re taking upon themselves a great responsibility. And that won’t be our responsibility.” Meanwhile, several influential Party of Regions MPs stated this weekend that not only is Tymoshenko’s release before Vilnius not possible, but neither is approving legislation by then.

 

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych traveled to Moscow on November 10 for a working visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Interfax news agency confirmed after a Sunday night Russian television report said the meeting didn’t occur. The Ukrainian Presidential Administration reported on November 8 that Yanukovych would travel to Moscow for a working visit to trade and economic relations.

 

Zenon Zawada: In our view, the only way that Tymoshenko can be released in time for the Vilnius summit is with a presidential pardon. A procedure that involves approving legislation in full and gaining a court ruling for her release afterwards will require several weeks to complete, exceeding the EU’s deadlines. Given that we view a low likelihood of a presidential pardon, we believe it’s unlikely Tymoshenko will be released at all. We stress that the Yanukovych administration and Party of Regions missed a unique opportunity to approve legislation last week, particularly after the EU and the opposition agreed to drop the demand of a pardon in favor of a bill that would lay the groundwork for Tymoshenko’s release with a court ruling. The Yanukovych administration is clearly challenging the EU on its commitment to Tymoshenko, placing its bet that it will forego her release as a requirement.

 

Therefore, in our view, the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement hangs on the willingness of the EU foreign ministers to overlook Tymoshenko’s imprisonment in signing the pact. We thought this was a strong possibility, until the October 21 statement by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski that the foreign ministers of three countries – Great Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands – will vote against the agreement if Tymoshenko remained imprisoned.

 

The Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported on November 8 that Great Britain in fact supports signing the agreement regardless of Tymoshenko’s release, while it’s the governments of Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands that are requiring her freedom. The diplomats of these three countries could be made to compromise, the report said. However, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, considered to the EU’s authority on Ukraine, said recently the agreement won’t be signed if Tymoshenko isn’t released by November 28-29.

 

Therefore, our new scenario of hope (and perhaps the last scenario) is similar to what we suggested several weeks ago: the EU leadership decides to sign the Association Agreement based on legislation approved by the Ukrainian parliament at its November 13 session, which promises Tymoshenko’s release after the Vilnius summit. That way, the EU gets its Association Agreement  (which blocks any possibility of Ukraine joining the Customs Union) while the Yanukovych administration gains the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, as well as improved ability to gain loans from Western institutions.

 

If the Yanukovych administration breaks its promise to release Tymoshenko after the summit, then the EU can opt to reject the fulfillment of the Association Agreement during the ratification process.