1 September 2015
Ukraine’s parliament voted on Aug. 31 to approve the first reading of constitutional amendments aimed at decentralizing the government in favor of regional legislatures. The coalition mustered 265 votes that had the support of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front party led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc and two groups of MPs of big business interests. In comparison, the July vote sending the amendments for review by the Constitutional Court drew 288 votes.
The most controversial items, drawing violent opposition, involved the amendments creating a “specific order” in the districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are occupied by Russian military forces and Russian-backed terrorists. The “specific order” (which is phrased as “special status” in the Minsk accords) calls for local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law, local politicians appointing judges and prosecutors, the establishment of a local police force, and socio-economic support for these districts.
Opposition to the amendments was led by Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party, the Self-Reliance party and the Fatherland party led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, all pro-EU parties and members of the coalition government. Radical Party MPs blocked the tribune, shouted “Shame!” and decried the amendments as a betrayal of national interests. Outside the parliament, more than 500 protestors gathered representing the Ukrop party founded by oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and the Svoboda nationalist party, also shouting “Shame!”
The protestors, some carrying clubs, threw smoke and gas bombs and sound grenades with National Guardsmen cordoning the parliament building until a grenade exploded in the early afternoon. One officer was killed, six critically injured, 12 underwent surgery, and 90 were hospitalized, many of which suffered a concussion or shrapnel, reported the vesti-ukr.com news site. Reporters video-recorded a Freedom party protestor throwing the grenade and the Interior Ministry claimed to have arrested this person. The ministry identified the assailant by name and as a volunteer police patrolman on vacation. In all, 18 were arrested and detained while 13 more were released, the ministry said. In turn, the Freedom party accused the Interior Ministry of provoking the conflict by applying force to peaceful protestors.
Zenon Zawada: It should come as no surprise that Ukraine’s big business and establishment forces support the constitutional amendments creating a specific order/special status in the occupied territories of Donbas. Indeed it’s the best plan that’s on the table, considering the populists haven’t offered specifics and the nationalists seek a national war effort. The EU leadership, and Ukraine’s pro-EU establishment, believes that giving the Donbas occupied territories self-governance is essentially equivalent to giving them the rope with which to hang themselves. They are convinced their experiment in self-governance will fall apart, along with a crumbling Russian economy.
The more immediate question is whether the president can recruit 300 MPs for a required second vote for legislation that will amend the Ukrainian Constitution. The other big question is what will the opposition look like then. The populist and nationalist forces may become even more violent, especially if law enforcement authorities take measures to restrict their activity. This will become the biggest challenge of Poroshenko’s turbulent presidency and could likely make or break him politically.
Another important point to keep in mind is that it remains doubtful that the Russian-backed separatists will uphold their end of the Minsk accords, even after the Constitution is amended, and will continue to ignore even their fundamental requirements. That will leave the Ukrainian government in the awkward position of having amended the Constitution for an agreement that isn’t being upheld, which will give the populist and nationalist forces even more political ammunition to oppose the government with. Yet the failure to uphold the accords will also give the West a pretext to intensify sanctions against the Russian government in this very intricate geopolitical game.