Ukraine parliament to decide on future of Yatsenyuk cabinet today

The Cabinet of Ministers is scheduled to report on its performance to the Ukrainian parliament (Rada) today, and lawmakers will have an opportunity to dismiss it after that. To make this happen: 1) at least 150 MPs (of 422 total) have to initiate a question of cabinet’s responsibility, and 2) after the cabinet’s report, at least 226 MPs have to vote for a resolution of no confidence in the cabinet. According to various sources, the collection of 150 signatures to initiate the process is ongoing, and there is a high likelihood that they will be collected.

However, it’s still unclear whether the Rada will be able to accumulate enough votes to dismiss the cabinet. The three smallest factions that created the coalition, having 66 votes, are among the initiators of the dismissal. Also, all but eleven members of the pro-presidential faction present at yesterday’s faction meeting expressed their intention to vote for the dismissal, according to the pravda.com.ua news site. This faction has 136 MPs. Also, according to journalist Sonya Koshkina, Volia Narodu group (consisting of 20 MPs) is also going to support the dismissal. This totals 212 votes for dismissal, provided all the MPs of the listed groups attend the session and vote as they are expected to (which is unlikely – the most likely range is 180-200, we believe). Of the other factions and independent parliament members, some 20-40 MPs may also vote in favor of the cabinet’s dismissal. All in all, it is still a question whether the necessary 226 votes will be collected.

In case the Rada is unable to vote for dismissal of the cabinet, minor reshuffles in the cabinet are possible, which would dismiss the most poorly performing ministers. Such a scenario, theoretically, allows Ukraine to receive an IMF tranche (USD 1.7 bln) and some other western loans (up to USD 2.5 bln) very soon. Though, such an outcome will not change the speed of reforms in Ukraine. In this case, the next attempt to dismiss Yatsenuyk will be only possible since the next session (starting in September).

If the Rada dismisses the cabinet, the current one will work until the election of a new one. If the Rada is unable to elect a new Cabinet in 60 days, the president would then have the right (not obligation) to dismiss the Rada and call early parliamentary elections. He could get the right to dismiss the Rada even earlier – if the parliamentary coalition is split (which is very likely in the event of Yatsenyuk’s dismissal) and a new one is not created within one month. The dismissal scenario looks very risky in the short-term, given that the Rada has no clear, consolidated candidate for a new Prime Minister. Unless a new PM is elected as soon as possible, Ukraine would not receive international loans, which could deepen the financial crisis in the country. Though, there is still a chance that parliament would agree on a new prime minister soon – the most likely candidate is Natalie Jaresko, the current Finance Minister, who is considered to be a reform-oriented person. All in all, today’s possible dismissal of Yatsenyuk could bring Ukraine to a deep crisis, or make way for faster for reform.