Ukraine parliament to ratify Association pact,consider Donbas special status

The Presidential Administration of Ukraine submitted on Sept. 15 the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement for ratification today. Iryna Gerashchenko, the presidential ombudsman for the peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, said last week that the president has secured the needed constitutional majority of 300 out of 450 votes to ratify the agreement. The parliamentary session will feature a video broadcast from the European Parliament in Strasbourg, which will simultaneously ratify the agreement.

 

The Presidential Administration also submitted several bills for parliament’s consideration today that are intended to lay the groundwork for the president’s peace plan, a cornerstone of which involves creating a special status for these war-torn regions lasting three years. The bills create self-governance institutions in those locations controlled by the pro-Russian forces. They forbid criminal prosecution, persecution and discrimination against all those involved in the conflict, granting amnesty to those engaged in certain criminal and administrative violations on the territory starting Feb. 22. The legislation guarantees elections to be held to local governing bodies, forbidding the early dismissal of elected officials. Local governing bodies will participate in the selection of prosecutors and judges. The central government agrees to support financially the region’s economic and infrastructure reconstruction, guaranteed by fiscal line items, according to the bills.

 

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with parliamentary faction leaders on Sept. 15 to convince them to vote in favor of legislation today that supports his Donbas peace plan, as reported by the Ukrayinska Pravda news site. He said his proposed three-year special status for limited parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions “is a de facto element of decentralization, with the full and unconditional commitment to sovereignty, territorial integrity and the independence of our state.” A deeper decentralization will be implemented during these three years, which will require constitutional amendments, he said. He assured them the legislation’s amnesty doesn’t apply to murderers, terrorists, assassins, rapists, and thieves, among other severe criminal categories. “Right now, there isn’t a more important task for us than peace,” he said. “A rift in this process can lead to unforeseen consequences, and each of us is supposed to understand what they are.”

 

The president also urged the parliamentary faction heads to support anti-corruption legislation to satisfy the loan requirements set forth by the International Monetary Fund. The zn.ua news site reported the president has gathered enough votes for the special status legislation, despite several factions declaring their opposition, including the populist Fatherland party, the populist Radical Party, the nationalist Freedom party and the reformist Civic Position party.

 

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, head of the newly launched People’s Front party, said he opposes the president’s bill creating the special status for the occupied territories. “Is there faith in the conflict ending and the Russian president backing off from his plans thanks to some concessions or approving some bill?,” he asked a television audience rhetorically. “Zero faith.”

 

Andrei Purgin, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said on Sept. 15 that the president’s special status bill isn’t relevant for his organization, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. “This bill is for Ukraine,” he said. “For the Donetsk People’s Republic, laws are created by our own parliament.” He added, “Possibly, it will be a point of contact for future negotiations, but not more than that.”

 

Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian entrepreneur and close advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposes creating entirely different territories out of the Donetsk and Luhansk territories with different names, the zn.ua news site reported, citing a document from the OSCE. The proposal rejects Poroshenko’s three-year special status in favor of a permanent special status guaranteed in the Constitution. This status precludes the two territories’ self-governance, including independent parliaments and governments, yet within the Ukrainian state. Medvedchuk’s advisors said he considers the president’s special status proposal merely a transitional option of handling the conflict, the zn.ua report said.

 

The U.S. State Department condemns this weekend’s attacks by pro-Russian forces on Ukrainian positions and OSCE monitors in the Donetsk region, spokeswoman Marie Harf said on Sept. 15. “We strongly condemn the recent surge in separatist attacks against Ukrainian positions around Donetsk over the weekend, particularly the assault on Donetsk Airport,” she said. “Additionally, over the weekend, OSCE monitors came under fire and sustained serious damage to their vehicles. These incidents are in violation of the commitments made in the Sept. 5 Minsk Agreement. It is still holding, although it’s increasingly strained.”

 

The second humanitarian convoy dispatched this weekend by the Russian government violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine, said a Sept. 15 statement issued by Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. The convoy “entered and left Ukrainian territory without the permission or inspection of the Ukrainian government,” the statement said. “Fundamental international humanitarian principles weren’t upheld. That’s precisely why these actions were unlawful and violated Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

 

Artillery fire in Donetsk the night of Sept. 14 killed six civilians, while 15 were wounded by shrapnel, the city council reported. Dozens of buildings were damaged and ruined. The State Border Service of Ukraine has begun to delineate the Russian-controlled territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions from the rest of Ukraine, reported on Sept. 15 Andriy Lyusenko, the spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council.

 

Presidential ombudsman Iryna Gerashchenko estimated the damage of the Donbas war at nearly USD 1 billion. The estimate takes into account ruined bridges, factories, offices, schools and nurseries, among other infrastructure, she told a Sept. 15 press conference, as reported by Ukrayinska Pravda. Since the conflict’s eruption in April, 21 population centers in the Donetsk region suffered, in addition to 14 population centers in the Luhansk region.

 

Zenon Zawada: The Association Agreement ratification is a done deal, apparently, but the president’s special status legislation for Donbas isn’t. His efforts to establish peace deserve admiration and are the right approach given his current political position: he wants to satisfy Western demands for peace and wants to cast himself as the peacemaker for his electorate. But when considering the above-mentioned proposal from Medvedchuk, Putin’s righthand man in Ukraine, and comments from the separatist leader Purgin make it quite obvious that the peace plan and its special status have minimal prospects for long-term success (three years, in this case).

 

The pro-Russian forces won’t settle for the current boundaries established by the special status, which amount to one-third of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. They want the entire territory and we expect could try to occupy it by winter. They are also eying a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula. We share Yatsenyuk’s cynicism and expect the government to have Plans B and C in place when the peace plan and special status don’t go as planned. We also urge investors to brace themselves for another escalation in the conflict in the coming weeks. Although there has been relative peace in the last few weeks, we don’t have hope for its long-term prospects given the evidence of Russian military units being rearranged, the daily ceasefire interruptions, the violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the statements of the pro-Russian leaders themselves.