Ukraine peace talks renewed, with no progress

The working subgroup on security, as part of the Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas, renewed negotiations on Aug. 27, the Belarus Foreign Ministry reported on Twitter. A document to remove arms with a caliber less than 100 mm hasn’t been agreed upon owing to a lack of consensus on four contested points along the conflict line, reported the Interfax news agency, citing an anonymous source in the working subgroup. They also can’t agree on the format of verifying the agreement’s implementation, the report said. The prior day, Interfax cited an anonymous source stating the document to remove arms won’t be initialed at the next Contact Group meeting, scheduled for Sept. 8. “Even if the subgroup on security prepares a compromise to the document, it can be initialed not earlier than Sept. 8 in the best case,” the report said.

Ukraine and the EU aren’t considering amending the existing Minsk accords to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Aug. 27 following a meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. “A Minsk Three doesn’t exist and can’t exist,” he said. “We have the Minsk accords. They are voluminous. They are all-encompassing. The single thing that has to be done for peace in Ukraine is to fulfill them.” In order to accelerate that goal, Ukraine will propose at each meeting to involve United Nations peacekeepers or an EU mission in the framework of a collective EU security policy.

The governments of the EU, France and Germany have confirmed that Ukraine is firmly fulfilling all the responsibilities it has taken upon itself, Poroshenko said. At the same time, the Russian government is failing to uphold its responsibilities to ensure stability in Ukraine, Juncker said at the same press conference.

Russian-backed fighters have no intention to cease their military offensive and aim to take control of the entire Donetsk region, said on Aug. 27 Aleksandr Zakharchenko, as reported by the novosti.dn.ua news site. Achieving that goal will force the Kyiv government to agree to peace, he said. Meanwhile, the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic Prime Minister Aleksandr Borodai told an Aug. 27 press conference that he will lead the Union of Donbas Volunteers launched in Russia, which will be a socially oriented civic organization and apolitical. It has no state support, he said. Between 30,000 and 50,000 Russia citizens have fought in Donbas since the war’s outbreak in April 2014, Borodai estimated. Seven Ukrainian soldiers died and 13 were injured during the 24 hours leading to the morning of Aug. 27, reported Presidential Administration spokesman that day.

Zenon Zawada: We don’t expect the Western leadership will dispatch any armed forces to the Donbas region, whether in the framework of a UN peacekeeping mission or others. The potential for casualties and an escalated conflict is too high. Instead it’s in the West’s interests to keep the conflict going at its current pace, by minimizing the damage being inflicted on the warfront while gradually tightening economic pressure on Moscow.

Amid this stragegy, the negotiations have taken on a perfunctory nature, in which their necessity is widely recognized but with little expectations for real results. We maintain our position that the West is concentrating its efforts on forcing a regime change in Moscow as its main instrument in resolving the armed conflict in Donbas, as well as frozen conflicts involving the Russian military.

Not only is it unrealistic for the Russian-backed terrorists to take control of the remaining territory of the Donetsk region, but it’s also not affordable, from an economic viewpoint. A battle for the strategic port city of Mariupol would be highly costly, in terms of arms and casualties. The costs would be particularly excessive in trying to take the rural regions of Donetsk, which hold little strategic value.

Therefore, like many statements from terrorist leaders, Borodai’s claims are intended to intimidate. Yet they’ve lost their effect and are largely dismissed by the public.