Ukraine prepares for three COVID wave possibilities

Health Minister Viktor Lyashko stated in a television
interview that the ministry is preparing for three possible developments
regarding the severity of the upcoming wave of COVID in Ukraine. The scenarios
determine the estimated numbers of hospital beds to be allocated and how many
will have oxygen, pravda.com.ua reported on Aug 6. Lyashko noted in particular
that the question of oxygen has improved from whether there is oxygen at all to
the volume available.

The interview comes as officials and observers attempt
to forecast the timing of the outbreak. Kyiv School of Economics reported on
Aug 3 that an “alarming” trend of increasing hospitalizations points to an
outbreak occurring in approximately two weeks. In a post on its website, KSE
pointed to a steady mortality rate at the moment, but that hospitalizations had
already increased 17% per week, as opposed to 3-5% during the lull in infection
earlier in the summer. Hospitalizations are growing in 20 of 25 regions across
the country.

James Hydzik: The timing of the surge may catch some people by surprise because of
assumptions that COVID takes summer vacations, and like school children and
politicians, returns in September. Also, Lyashko’s comment earlier this week
that the Delta variant of COVID would become the dominant variant in September,
while accurate, may mislead people into thinking that they have more time than
is the case.