Ukraine president on path to lose re-election bid, polls report

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych would lose handily a second-round run-off against his current main opponents in the March 2015 presidential elections, according to a poll released on Dec. 25 that was conducted jointly by two independent polling firms. Vitali Klitschko, chairman of the pro-EU Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), would gain 43 percent of the vote compared to 25 percent for Yanukovych, according to the poll, which was conducted among 3,2000 respondents between Dec. 7 and 17.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, political council chair of the pro-EU Fatherland party, would gain 35 percent, compared to 26 percent for Yanukovych. Even the self-declared “social-nationalist” Oleh Tiahnybok would gain 29 percent compared to 27 percent for Yanukovych. In the first round vote, Yanukovych would win the most votes, 20 percent, compared to 19 percent for Klitschko, nine percent for Yatsenyuk and 7 percent for independent businessman Petro Poroshenko, who would also defeat Yanuokvych in a second round by an 8 percent margin.

Yanukovych’s campaign staff is planning to load the first round with numerous candidates to split the pro-EU vote, reported veteran Ukrainian political observer Sergiy Taran on Dec. 25. In addition, they plan to add fraudulent votes in favor Communist Party Chair Petro Symonenko, which would produce a second-round run-off between him and the incumbent president, ensuring Yanukovych’s victory, Taran reported.

“It’s a ‘sly version’ of falsifications – ‘opposition candidate’ Symonenko gets thrown a percentage from the incumbent and the entire focus of the fraud will occur before election day,” Taran wrote on his blog. “With such a schedule, the very day of voting can occur ideally transparently.” An attempt will also be made to remove Klitshcko from the ballot for allegedly failing to meet residency requirements, he wrote.

Zenon Zawada: Yanukovych’s political handlers are well aware of his unpopularity, which deepened after the EU Association Agreement collapse. We have no doubt they are making plans to adjust the rules of the elections game to produce the “needed” victory. The situation outlined by Taran is quite plausible and in his blog, he offered the correct remedy to avoid the defeat of a pro-Western candidate, which is for Ukraine’s pro-EU camp to agree to a single candidate for the first-round vote. Otherhwise, the pro-EU opposition will be setting itself up for failure. Additionally, any attempt to remove Klitschko as a candidate will be viewed as illegitimate by Western institutions and Ukraine’s pro-Western majority, casting doubt on the election’s legitimacy, which is already in question given the absence of imprisomed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.