Ukraine real GDP drops 11.4% in 2Q20, UkrStat estimates

Ukraine’s 2Q20 real GDP fell 11.4% yoy, or 9.9% qoq
seasonally adjusted, after dropping 1.3% yoy (0.7% qoq) in 1Q20,
according to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service released on
Aug. 14.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko:  The
estimated drop of 11.4% yoy in 2Q20 implies a decline of around 6.5% yoy in
1H20, which coincides with the recent estimate by the Ministry of
Economic Development.

We expect the economic decline to slow down in 2H20,
with ongoing adverse effects from the global markets and the unfavorable
investment environment in the country. Our forecast is for Ukraine’s GDP to
drop 5.8% yoy in 2020 (vs. 3.2% yoy growth in 2019).