Ukraine real GDP drops 3.5% in 3Q20, UkrStat estimates

Ukraine’s 3Q20 real GDP fell 3.5% yoy, or 8.5% qoq
seasonally adjusted, after dropping 11.4% yoy (9.7% qoq) in 2Q20,
according to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service released on
Nov. 17.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The decline
of Ukraine’s GDP slowed down significantly in 3Q20 amid a relatively stable
pandemic situation and minimal quarantine restrictions. The economy revived
itself on a quarter-over-quarter basis, primarily due to swelling household
consumption that was prompted by the growth of real wages.

We expect the economic decline to slow down in
4Q20. As for 2020, our forecast is for Ukraine’s GDP to drop 4.6% yoy (vs. 3.3%
yoy growth in 2019).