Ukraine real GDP slows to 2.8% yoy growth in 3Q18

Ukraine’s 3Q18 real GDP grew 2.8% yoy, or 0.4% qoq seasonally
adjusted, slowing from 3.8% yoy (1.0% qoq) in 2Q18, according to preliminary
estimates by the State Statistics Service released on Nov. 14.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The weaker
3Q18 GDP result is apparently due to slower growth in agriculture, which showed
outstanding growth in 2Q18 due to shifted seasonality. In addition, industrial
output remained sluggish during 3Q18, showing a year-on-year decline in August-September.

If this preliminary estimate is correct, our 2018 GDP
projection of 3.3% yoy, as well as the NBU’s forecast of 3.4% yoy, might be
overstated. At the moment, we don’t see substantial factors that would boost
economic growth in 4Q18 to attain this result.