Ukraine reducing Russian gas; NAFTO, DTEK seek Western imports

Naftogaz of Ukraine (NAFTO) is planning to buy 18-20 bcm of Russian natural gas in 2013, the deputy CEO of the holding told journalists on Feb. 26. Naftogaz has already warned Gazprom of the purchase reduction, he said. Naftogaz has agreed to import about 1 bcm of gas from Germany through Poland in 2013, and is negotiating to import up to 7 bcm from Germany through Hungary and Slovakia.

Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state gas production and transit monopoly, imported 24.9 bcm of Russian gas in 2012, while Ukraine’s total gas imports from Russia amounted to 32.9 bcm.

DTEK (DTEKUA), Ukraine’s largest private energy holding company, is also negotiating to import gas from Europe in 2013 and confirmed these intentions, reported the Interfax news agency.

Alexander Paraschiy: Contrary to our earlier expectations, German natural gas imports proved their economic efficiency in December. The import price was USD 22/tcm, or 5% lower compared to Russian gas and a significant savings compared to USD 5/tcm, or a 1% difference, in November. Despite the new gas sources – and the current Russian gas price being higher than its 2012 average – we expect such diversification of imports will only give Ukraine the ability to keep its total gas bill flat yoy in 2013, at about USD 14 bln.

So far, Gazprom has yet to react to Naftogaz’s new proposal . In the worst case scenario, Gazprom can enforce its USD 7 bln fine for Ukraine allegedly breaching its take-or-pay clause in 2012. In the best case, Gazprom can offer some gas discount to Ukraine, but this scenario would be preceded by concessions from the Ukrainian side.