Ukraine reports preliminary 2011 harvest results

Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee published preliminary figures on Ukraine’s 2011 harvest in net weight yesterday (final data is scheduled for release in May 2012). The total grain harvest was 56.7 mmt, up 44% yoy, with most of the growth provided by improvement in yields while an increase in acreage was only responsible for 5% of the rise. The total oilseed harvest amounted to 12.4 mmt, up 25% yoy, of which land acreage increase contributed 4% yoy.

Ukraine preliminary harvest results

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                   Harvest,net,mmt     Land harvested,mln ha     Yield,net,t/ha
                       2011   2010  yoy     2011   2010   yoy     2011   2010  yoy
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Wheat             22.31  16.85  32%     6.66   6.28    6%   3.35   2.68  25%
Barley             9.10    8.48    7%       3.68   4.32  -15%   2.47   1.97  26%
Corn               22.78  11.95   91%     3.54   2.65   34%   6.43   4.51  42%
Other grains    2.49    1.98    26%     1.43   1.33    8%   1.74   1.49  16%
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Total grains     56.67  39.27  44%    15.31  14.58    5%                          
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Sunflower       8.66   6.77  28%     4.72   4.53    4%   1.84   1.50  23%
Soybean         2.26   1.68  35%     1.11   1.04    7%   2.04   1.62  26%
Rapeseed        1.44   1.47  -2%     0.83   0.86   -3%   1.73   1.70   1%
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Total oilseed    12.36   9.92  25%     6.66   6.42    4%                          
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Sugar beets    18.73  13.75  36%     0.52   0.49    5%  36.31  27.95  30%
Potatoes         24.25  18.70  30%     1.44   1.41    2%  16.80  13.25  27%
Other                                              0.80   0.76    5%                          
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Total land harvested                        24.73  23.66    4%                                        
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Source: UkrStat

Yegor Samusenko: The reported harvest figures are generally in line with what the Agriculture Ministry published early in December 2011, the key difference being that this is net data while the ministry reported gross figures. In 2011, most of Ukraine’s crops benefited from good weather conditions, with corn the top outperformer (yields rose 42% yoy to 6.43 t/ha) and rapeseed virtually the only outsider (yields increased only 1% yoy to an average of 1.73 t/ha). The total harvest for both grain and oilseed was a historical high in 2011. With current winter crop conditions below average, we expect next year’s harvest to be less than 2011’s, but not significantly. While below average winter crop conditions and assumed elimination of the 2011 positive weather shock should broadly decrease yields, an anticipated 19% increase in the acreage planted with corn should absorb some of the harvest decline because corn delivers on average twice more grains per ha than wheat and barley, Ukraine’s key historic crops.