Ukraine retail sales stay at 3% yoy growth in 5M20

Ukraine retail sales advanced 3.1% yoy in real terms
in 5M20, slowing slightly from 3.2% yoy growth in 4M20, Ukraine’s State
Statistics Service reported on June 22. In May, retail sales dropped 3.1% yoy
(vs. a 14.9% yoy plunge in April), but advanced 15.0% m/m in real terms.

Regionally, the highest retail growth in 5M20 occurred
in the Kyiv (11.6% yoy), Zaporizhzhia (10.5% yoy), Dnipropetrovsk and Volyn
(8.0% yoy) regions. The major outsiders were Zakarpattia (-12.0% yoy),
Chernivtsi (-9.6% yoy), Rivne and Lviv (-0.5% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: It was
encouraging to see that retail declines significantly slowed in May, even
though some quarantine restrictions affecting retail stores and public
transportation were still in place during the month.

The retail statistics of the nearest months should
demonstrate whether the changes in the disposable income of Ukrainians as a
result of the corona crisis were significant enough to reduce their consumption
behavior. 

Positive trends in trade might serve as a
restraining factor to the economic decline, while the situation in
manufacturing doesn’t look promising at all.