Ukraine retail trade accelerates to 5% in 2M21

Ukrainian retail sales increased 4.6% yoy in 2M21
accelerating from a 3.5%% yoy surge in January, Ukraine’s State Statistics
Service reported on March 22. In February, retail sales advanced 5.6% yoy or
1.3% m/m.

Regionally, the highest retail growth in 2M21 occurred
in Kyiv (11.9% yoy), Chernihiv (8.3% yoy) and Chernivtsi (7.8% yoy) regions.
The largest declines were in Cherkasy (-2.4% yoy), Volyn (-1.9% yoy) and
Kirovohrad (-1.7% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
February results for retail are disappointing. We would expect a much greater
advance given no quarantine restrictions during the month and a relatively
stable pandemic situation. 

March retail results are not likely to be stellar, as
quarantine restrictions are being reintroduced in the second half of the month.
We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021, allowing retail sales to
accelerate to 10% yoy (vs. 8.4% yoy growth in 2020).