Ukraine retail trade accelerates to 8% in 1Q21

Ukrainian retail sales increased 7.5% yoy in 1Q21 accelerating
from a 4.6%% yoy growth in 2M21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on
April 20. In March, retail sales advanced 11.8% yoy or 13.1% m/m.

In 1Q21, retail growth was observed across Ukraine.
The highest growth occurred in Kyiv (14.6.9% yoy), Chernivtsi (13.7% yoy) and
Vinnytsya (12.5% yoy) regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kirovohrad
(0.2% yoy), and Cherkasy (1.1% yoy) and Rivne (1.6% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Retail
picked up significantly in March, compensating for the quite weak results in
the first two months of the year. In 2Q21, retail is likely to show quite high
growth given the low comparative base of the previous year.

We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021,
allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% yoy (vs. 8.4% yoy growth in 2020).