Ukraine retail trade increases 13% in 7M21

Ukrainian retail sales increased 13.0% yoy in 7M21
slowing from 13.8% yoy growth in 1H21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported
on Aug. 20. In July, real retail sales increased 6.5% m/m and 10.1% yoy.

The highest growth of retail sales in 7M21 occurred in
Chernivtsi (28.8% yoy), Ternopil (28.2% yoy) and Lviv (20.8% yoy) regions. The
slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (2.3% yoy), Kirovohrad (9.5% yoy) as well
as in Ukraine-controlled Donetsk and Mykolayiv (both 9.8% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The growth
rate of retail sales continues to decline as the effect of the low comparative
base in the previous year wears off. Nevertheless, the retail growth remains
quite high.

We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021,
allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% yoy (vs. 7.6% yoy growth in 2020).
At the moment, we think that rising consumer inflation
will not result in a more significant slowdown of real retail growth through
the end of the year.