Ukraine retail trade slows to 5.6% growth in October

Ukrainian retail sales increased 5.6% yoy (and 1.9% m/m)
in October, slowing from 5.9% yoy growth in the prior month, Ukraine’s State
Statistics Service reported on Nov. 22. In 10M21, retail increased 11.5% yoy
(vs. 7.0% yoy in 10M20).

The highest growth of retail sales in 10M21 occurred
in Chernivtsi (26.8% yoy), Ternopil (24.9% yoy) and Zakarpattia (19.5% yoy)
regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (1.9% yoy),
Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (6.0% yoy) region and Volyn (6.6% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The growth
rate of retail sales continues to decline as the effect of the low comparative
base in the previous year wears off. Nevertheless, maintained by consumer
demand, retail growth remains quite high in contrast with the overall weak economic performance.

We expect retail sales to increase 10.0% yoy in 2021 (vs. 7.6% yoy growth in 2020).