Ukraine, Russia considering new leaders in occupied Donbas

To resolve the war in Donbas, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is considering creating local administrations in the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions led by individuals mutually agreed upon by the Russian and Ukrainian governments, reported on March 12 the dt.ua news site, citing anonymous sources. These individuals are Donetsk industrial magnates Rinat Akhmetov and Yuriy Boyko, who is currently the head of the Opposition Bloc parliamentary faction. Their candidacies are part of a plan presented to Poroshenko by Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with close ties to Russian President Putin. Akhmetov and Boyko would take leadership from Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnytskiy, who have led the terrorist forces.

The Presidential Administration has been negotiating with Akhmetov and Boyko to appoint them as administrators of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, reported on March 12 the pravda.com.ua, citing anonymous sources in presidential administration. Akhmetov’s appointment is supported by Victoria Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, the report said. Putin and Medvedchuk “aren’t thrilled” with Akhmetov, who suggested himself as a candidate, the report said. Meanwhile, the Kremlin likes the candidacy of Boyko, according to the dt.ua report.

Western governments expect Ukraine will approve the elections law for occupied Donbas by the end of March and hold elections no later than June, the dt.ua report said. The failure to meet these deadlines will result in the removal of EU sanctions against Russian officials, the report said. Ruslan Kniazevych, the president’s representative to parliament, is leading the effort to draft the new law, beyond the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group, yet in cooperation with French and German officials, the report said. These European officials are also consulting with Russian officials on the election conditions. “Our Western partners are less concerned about Ukraine’s interests than the very fact of holding elections, which will allow ‘solving’ the problem,” the report said.

Zenon Zawada: With the West growing impatient and imposing new deadlines, Poroshenko and his team are being forced to look for creative solutions. The appointment of Akhmetov and Boyko to govern the occupied regions could be the breakthrough that this peace process has needed, but only if they are able to ensure that the necessary conditions for elections are established. They include the removal of Russian soldiers and arms, the disarmament of Donbas natives and the restoration of Ukrainian control of its border.

Before this development, we viewed the chances of elections being held as very negative. But the likelihood of elections being held significantly improves if Akhmetov and Boyko are appointed, in our view, given that they enjoy the trust of the local population, as well as Kyiv and largely Moscow. Nationalists will be violently opposed to this plan. But the question is whether it’s will be good enough for the general public to accept it.