Ukraine second vote on constitution to occur after Oct. 25

The second vote on the controversial constitutional amendments will take place after the local elections on Oct. 25, said Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in a Sept. 6 interview on Ukrainian television. “The factor of local elections won’t pressure any political forces,” he said. “The schedule will be very wisely prepared.” Instead, the government will spend the next several weeks explaining the planned decentralization to the public, he said, “so that people have the ability to become convinced that they’re not being fooled, that decentralization is bringing power closer to the people and the transfer of significant financial resources to communities, and an opportunity for more accountability of government.”

The implementation of the constitutional amendments to fulfill the Minsk accords needs to occur by the year end, Poroshenko said, referring to the creation of a specific order in the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The second vote will need 300 MPs (out of 421 currently holding mandates) in favor, while just 265 MPs offered their support in the first vote.

Zenon Zawada: The constitutional amendments aren’t very popular with the public, which is one reason for postponing the second vote. In particular, it’s the creation of the specific order/special status that is what’s causing the most doubt among the public. Another reason is the president needs more time to recruit the 300 MPs in favor. Yet a bigger overlooked factor, in our view, is that the Donetsk People’s Republic is planning to hold its local elections on Oct. 18. It would be ridiculous for the Ukrainian government to take such a weighty step as to amend its Constitution for an agreement that is being flaunted by the Russian-backed terrorists, particularly with the holding of elections unrecognized by the West.

It’s unclear just how Poroshenko intends to muster 300 votes in support of the specific order/special status if the Donetsk People’s Republic holds its election on Oct. 18, which would be the ultimate demonstration of the contempt for world opinion held by the Russian government and its satellites. We think it will be close to impossible. So the West and Ukraine have to mobilize their diplomatic muscle in the next several weeks to get the terrorists to back down from their planned elections of the Minsk accords have any hope of survival. This also begs the question of whether the West and Ukraine are approaching the Minsk accords appropriately if the Russian forces see them as merely an instrument, and not an end worth striving for.