Ukraine trade deficit reaches USD 2.1 bln for 10M16

Ukraine’s trade deficit on goods reached USD 2.1 bln in 10M16 compared to a USD 377.2 mln surplus a year ago (USD 1.76 bln deficit for 9M16), according to state statistics released on Dec 15.

For 10M16, goods exports fell 7.9% yoy owing to chemicals (-31.8% yoy), vehicles (-24.1% yoy), minerals (-18.4% yoy), metals (-15.7% yoy) and machinery (-7.8% yoy). Food oil exports kept growing, reaching 19.5% yoy growth for ten months. 

Goods imports dropped by a negligible 0.1% yoy for 10M16. Energy imports plunged 37.2% yoy, while non-energy imports rose (+17.9% yoy) owing to vehicles (+68.5% yoy), machinery (+25.7% yoy) and chemicals (+10.5% yoy).

For 10M16, exports to the EU improved 2.4%, somewhat slowing from 4.4% growth in 9M16.  Exports to the CIS plummeted 25.6% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The October trade balance was slightly better than we expected owing to lower imports.  As a result, the 2016 trade deficit might conclude a bit better at USD 3.1 bln, than our forecast of USD 3.5 bln (according to UkrStat methodology).

In 2017, we expect the trade deficit expanding further on on the back of a steady revival in imports amid unclear prospects of exports. We project a USD 4.4 bln trade deficit in 2017 (according to UkrStat methodology).