Ukraine trade deficit reaches USD 2.9 bln in 2016
15 February 2017
In 2016, the trade balance in goods was a USD 2.9 bln deficit compared to a USD 0.6 bln surplus a year ago, State Statistics Service report on Feb 14. Through the year, exports dropped 4.6% yoy while imports increased 4.6% yoy. Exports fell on the back of chemicals (-27% yoy), metals (-12% yoy), minerals (-12% yoy), and machinery (-8% yoy). Only exports of foods increased, with a 20% yoy rise in 2016. Imports benefited from a non-energy imports recovering (+19% yoy) while the energy bill plunged 27% yoy. Non-energy imports increased in line with vehicles (+70% yoy), machinery (+26% yoy), metals (+15% yoy), and chemicals (+12% yoy).
Exports to the EU increased 3.7% yoy while exports to CIS countries fell by 22.7% yoy in 2016.
Alexander Paraschiy: The full-year results were close to our projections. We estimated a trade deficit of USD 2.6 bln in 2016 (according to UkrStat methodology). The poor performance of exports amid recovering non-energy imports was exactly what we expected initially.
In 2017, we expect the trend will continue with the only difference being that we can hardly expect a further energy imports decline. So far, we expect energy imports almost flat year-on-year in 2017. At the same time, the two-digit growth trend of non-energy imports looks strong and sustainable amid recovering consumption. Exports prospects remain questionable. Against this backdrop, we keep our trade deficit projection at USD 4.4 bln for 2017 (according to UkrStat methodology).
