Ukraine trade surplus reaches USD 1.4 bln for 7M15

Ukraine’s trade surplus on goods reached USD 1.4 bln in 7M15 compared to a USD 0.7 bln surplus in the same year-ago period, according to a Sept. 16 Ukrstat report. Goods exports declined 34.8% yoy on the back of sliding minerals (-54.0% yoy), metals (-41% yoy), and machinery (-39% yoy). Goods imports fell 37.8%, owing to machinery (-39%), energy (-35%), and chemicals (-30%). For 7M15, non-energy imports fell 38.9% yoy. Exports to CIS countries plunged 53.6% yoy and to the EU by 33.9% yoy in 7M15.

Alexander Paraschiy: Amusingly, the trade surplus has reached its highest level since 2004, largely because of shrinking demand for imports. Still, the numbers the State Statistics Committee released do not reflect the total picture. As of February, they don’t include natural gas imports from Russia due to some methodological reasons, while Ukraine imported 2.8 bcm in gas from Russia in February-June 2015. This nuance means that nearly USD 0.8 bln in energy imports have not been considered in the trade balance, so far. Still at some stage, this information will be finally reflected and the trade balance statistics will be revised. Against this backdrop, we still expect the year-end trade surplus to not exceed USD 1.9 bln in 2015 (according to UkrStat methodology).