Ukraine won’t turn to Russia if EU Association pact fails, govt advisor says

Ukraine won’t sharply turn in Russia’s direction if Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decides not to sign the Association Agreement in Vilnius, said Andriy Yermolayev, the director of the National Institute of Strategic Research at the Presidential Administration, in an interview published on the LigaBiznesInform news agency on November 20. “Politics doesn’t like sharply turns,” he said. “More likely than not, negotiations will become more pragmatic because all sides will have to work from the position that there’s time to re-evaluate their demands.”

Zenon Zawada: There was the suspicion among Ukraine observers that Yanukovych would resist joining both the EU and Customs Union. But few expected that he would have the gall to attempt this strategy, which is what seems to be happening now. Yet the reality is that if Yanukovych doesn’t make a decision on joining a supranational bloc, then the decision will eventually be made on his behalf (in the next few years), on what are doubtful to be favorable conditions. In the Kremlin’s case, the conditions could be quite hostile.