20 June 2014
Ukraine’s gross external debt fell 3.3% (USD 4.7 bln) in 1Q14 to USD 137.4 bln, or 76.7% of GDP as of April 1, according to a National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) report released on June 19. Short-term external debt fell 3.2%, or USD 2.1 bln, during the quarter.
Alexander Paraschiy: Falling short-term trade credits (USD -4.0 bln) and state liabilities (USD -1.1 bln) due to external redemptions were the main factors in the gross debt decline. With trade credits, the tendency is likely to sustain itself since it simply reflects lower demand for imported products. At the same time, we anticipate resumed growth of state liabilities and NBU liabilities starting in May on the back of new loans from the IMF, EU, World Bank and other donors. Against this backdrop, we anticipate gross external debt to reach USD 150 bln by the year’s end, which will be more than 100% of GDP.