Ukraine’s voter preferences stable as parliamentary elections loom

With less than a week to go before Ukraine’s
parliamentary elections, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s The People’s Servant
party retains its commanding lead. A poll released on July 15 by the Razumkov
Center shows the president’s team garnering 41.5% of votes from those who have
made up their minds (or 38% of all respondents). The poll also shows the
Russian-oriented For Life party securing 12.5% of the already-decided votes
(9.7% of all respondents), rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voice Party gaining
8.8% (7.0%), former Pesident Poroshenko’s European Solidarity Party at 8.3%
(6.1%) and Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland at 7.0% (4.1%).

Other parties will not cross the 5% threshold to
qualify for the parliament, according to the poll, while two parties are close
to it, including The Strength & Honor Party led by a former head of state
security service, 4.6% (3.7%) and Opposition Bloc of Metinvest’s minority
shareholder Vadim Novinsky, 3.8% (3.0%).

The Razumkov Center claims that as of July 11, the
close of the polling period, 86.3% of Ukrainian voters had made up their minds
about their voting choices. The margin for error was less than 2.3%

James Hydzik: The polls
have remained relatively stable for weeks, and we do not expect any significant
changes as the elections occur. Even if undecided voters voted en bloc against
President Zelensky, his party would gain the largest share of votes in the
Verkhovna Rada. Moreover, as the other parties jostle for position, there is no
chance that such divergent groups could cobble together a parliamentary
majority that would exclude The People’s Servant.

The two questions remaining are – whether The
People’s Servant will be able to secure majority seats in the parliament alone,
and if not, who will be the partners of the president’s faction in the new
coalition.