Ukrainian industry declines 2% in April

Ukraine’s industrial production fell 2.2% yoy in April, according to state statistics released on May 17.  Core industries are still in the red: chemicals -11.8% yoy, machinery -8.8% yoy, and metallurgy -4.9% yoy. In April, mining reported a 1.0% yoy decline vs. a 0.5% yoy increase a month ago. Energy production strengthened to 1.2% yoy from 0.5% yoy in March.

Alexander Paraschiy: The less dramatic contraction of industrial output does not look to be a break against the current trend. External markets remain sluggish and Ukrainian producers uncompetitive. Against this backdrop, we can hardly expect any industrial rebound. At the same time, we expect a further slowdown in declining rates in 2H13 on the back of the low statistical base. We expect annual industrial output will drop 0.7% yoy by the year’s end.