23 June 2014
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko published on June 20 the final version of his peace plan to settle the conflict in the eastern Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. It consists of 15 points, including withdrawing armed forces, release of hostages, creating a corridor to enable the departure of fighters and ensuring the safety for all participants of the negotiations and dropping criminal charges against those who surrendered their arms and didn’t commit serious crimes. It calls for creating a 10-kilometer wide buffer zone along the border between Russia and Ukraine and constitutional amendments to decentralize government, including shifting the responsibility for fulfilling initiatives by the national government to locally elected executive committees.
The same evening, Poroshenko declared the government has halted its anti-terrorist operation between June 20 and 27 for a week-long ceasefire. Those participating are Ukraine’s Armed Forces, National Guard and State Border Service. Fighters have this window of time to lay down their arms or face a government operation to destroy them, he said. Such military actions will be strictly in response to attacks on Ukrainian forces, he said.
In a video-recorded statement released the next day, Poroshenko said the government is ready to renew Ukraine’s territorial integrity “by all methods,” but it placing the priority currently on peaceful methods. “We have currently enough strength and political will to deliver a decisive blow to illegally armed formations,” he said. “All illegal armed formations ought to make note: the ceasefire initiated by us doesn’t mean that Ukrainian fighters are forbidden to shoot in response. Any attempts by fighters to attack will come across our dignified retaliation.”
Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland endorsed the Poroshenko peace plan on June 21, calling it “an important step on the road towards establishing lasting peace and stability in Ukraine.” He called on all sides to refrain from violence, and respect human rights and the rule of law. Also offering their endorsements were the leaders of the U.S., Great Britain, France and Germany, Poroshenko told soldiers on June 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Poroshenko’s ceasefire declaration, according to a statement released by the Presidential Administration on June 21. He also welcomed Poroshenko’s intent to apply several steps to achieve a peaceful settlement. At the same time, the plan won’t be “viable or realistic” without practical measures to initiate the negotiating process, he said. It’s unacceptable that Ukrainian ammunition is entering Russia and exploding there after the declared ceasefire, the statement said, referring to such reports earlier in the day. The Poroshenko peace plan “shouldn’t have the nature of an ultimatum,” Putin said. “The opportunity created by the ceasefire should be used to begin constructive talks and achieve political compromises between the conflicting sides in eastern Ukraine,” he said.
Poroshenko’s declared ceasefire is related to ammunition entering Russian territory in the vicinity of the Dovzhansk border post, reported the Russian Presidential Administration. The statement “was made either incidentally or coincidentally against the backdrop of the shooting of Russian territory in the vicinity of the Dovzhansk border post, which led to the damage of buildings and most importantly, the injury of a Russian customs agent,” the press service said. “The Russian side is waiting for explanations and apologizes in relation to that.” The shooting was the result of Ukrainian and pro-Russian fighters exchanging gunfire in the region, reported Dmytro Tymchuk of the Information Resistance.
Illegally armed formations violated the ceasefire the night of June 20- 21 when attacking the Izvaryno border post using mortars, reported the Foreign Affairs Ministry, “consciously attempting to undermine the peaceful settlement in Ukraine’s eastern regions.” Based on information from the Defense Ministry, “subunits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine activated in the anti-terrorist operation didn’t use and won’t use artillery and mortars during measures to renew the state border of Ukraine.” As a result of the attack on the Izvaryne and Uspenka border posts, nine border service officers were injured, reported Tymchuk. As further evidence of the ceasefire violations that night, he cited mortar and cannon attacks on government soldiers near the Kramatorsk air field and on the Karachun Hill, an attempted storming of Ukrainian command point near Amvrosiyivka and mortar fire on a road post in the vicinity of Rubizhe and Sloviansk.
The Ukrainian government confirmed ceasefire violations in the attacks on Izvaryno and Uspenka border posts, inflicting injuries against nine border officers, reported Vladislav Seleznev, the spokesman for the anti-terrorist operation. He added that a military subunit located in Avdiyivka was attacked by rifle fire, machine guns and grenade launchers, which were also used in an attack on a subunit in Kreminna. He confirmed attacks in the vicinities of Karachun and the animal feed plant in Sloviansk. No Ukrainian soldiers died that night, he reported.
About 40 fighters with the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) opened fire on June 21 near the Neva hotel in the city of Donetsk, claiming Ukrainian nationalist fighters had entered the building, reported the Donetsk City Council website. Authorities have yet to establish the verity of the claim. A nearby market was evacuated and shut down.
Zenon Zawada: As expected, the ceasefire doesn’t have much hope. The big issue now is what military maneuvers the government will take against the terrorist gangs. Giving them a ceasefire of one week enables them to regroup and form new tactics, which will undoubtedly involve intermingling with the civilian population and using them as shields. In which case, the Ukrainian military faces an entirely unconventional form of warfare for which it will need to radically adapt to.
This type of warfare will require months of fighting, not the few hours Poroshenko had aimed to conduct a decisive anti-terrorist operation. Moreover, it will likely result in civilian casualties and negative consequences on economic activity in the Donbas region. Therefore, Poroshenko faces a serious test to his leadership in the next few months. His political opponents will exploit the losses and he will have to rally enough support to convince the public of the wisdom of his course.