Ukrainian, Russian officials warn each other of aggression consequences

Russia is incapable of conducting a military
occupation of Ukraine, former Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk said on Dec.
18, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. “No one can conquer
Ukraine, I tell you this honestly,” he said. “If Russia loses its mind, enters
Ukraine, and occupies it, then Russia would cease to exist in a year. Half of
its army would need to be brought to Ukraine, almost 70% of the budget, to keep
it under control. And that’s not simple. It can’t handle Crimea, so it won’t be
able to hold onto Ukraine.”

An armed military invasion of Ukraine would be
catastrophic for Russia, warned on Dec. 17 Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s interior
minister, as reported by his press service. “This will be a very complicated
challenge for Ukraine, but it will be a catastrophe for Putinist Russia,” he
said, adding, “I really hope that this doesn’t happen, martial law ends by the
year end and we’ll return the occupied territories with the efforts of
diplomats.”

The Russian government “must prepare for a maximally
toughest response to any provocations from the Ukrainian side,” Alexey
Chesnakov, the director of the Center for Political Situations, told Russian
television on Dec. 14. Such a response must involve “destroying any ability for
the Ukrainian side to conduct aggressive politics in regards to Russia,” he
said. “It is necessary to deprive Ukraine of various military opportunities for
aggression.”

The Russian Armed Forces will transfer 10 aircraft
destroyers to its Belbek airbase in Crimea this week, when its reconstruction
is completed, reported the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing the Russian
Defense Ministry. The reconstruction involved the establishment of new runways,
tracks, parking spaces and fields that enable military flights at any time, and
in any weather, the report said. Early this month, Russian aircraft engaged in
military drills in Crimea practicing missile strikes, the Russian Defense
Ministry said.

Zenon Zawada: The initiation
of martial law in November has prompted a wave of comments, from both Russian
and Ukrainian officials, warning of the consequences of military conflict between
the two nations. We agree that Russia can’t occupy Ukraine militarily.
Chesnakov’s comments merely confirm our consistent view, held
for years now, that any Russian offensive may consist of
strategic strikes, likely from the air, against sensitive military targets on
Ukrainian territory. Our view is confirmed by the aircraft drills currently
occurring in Crimea.

We estimate the likelihood of
another military conflict between Russia and Ukraine at better than 50% in the
next three months, whether provoked intentionally or not, by the Ukrainian side
or by the Russian side. Key Ukrainian officials have indicated that another
conflict is inevitable. The main question is whether Russia will
fulfill Chesnakov’s advice and apply debilitating strikes on Ukrainian
territory. Since Chesnakov is widely recognized to be a key adviser to
Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s pointman for Ukraine, we view his words as a solid
characterization of what the Kremlin is planning. The military preparations
currently occurring in Crimea further confirm this.