25 October 2008
Ukrnafta (UNAF: SELL) released its January-September UAS statements yesterday, posting net income of USD 164.1 mln (down 2.3 times yoy) and net sales of USD 764.2 mln (down 1.7x yoy). For 3Q07, net income came to USD 83.7 mln (down 1.8x yoy) and net sales of USD 195.0 mln (down 2.4x yoy). The company’s EBITDA dropped by 48% yoy, to USD 315.5 mln from USD 606.4 mln last year. The main reasons for the deterioration of the company’s performance this year were higher royalties (+47% yoy), lower than expected revenue from natural gas and from oil products. Ukrnafta will not retail more than 1 mln mt of oil products in 2007 (~30% below our forecast) due to the stalled expansion of its fuel stations network. There is a possibility that sales of natural gas will recover by eoy, as we estimate that a large portion of extracted gas has been stored. However, the effect is likely to be partially offset by lower than forecasted price of gas.