Ukrnafta’s 2007 EBITDA Down 39% yoy, Matching Our Forecast

According to Ukrnafta’s (UNAF: SELL) 2007 financials prepared under local accounting standards, released yesterday,its EBITDA dropped by 38.9% yoy, to USD 457 mln, which almost exactly matches our forecast of USD 454 mln. Other items were also generally in line with our expectations (see the table below). The largest difference to our estimates was eoy net debt, which we believe should stem from lower than expected CapEx. The company has not yet disclosed its cash flow statement.

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Ukrnafta 2007 financials, USD mln
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                                   Actual Forecast Difference Change, yoy
Gross revenue                  2 695    2 723      -1.0%        4.4%
VAT and other deductions   -968     -937       3.3%      116.7%
Royalty                             -751     -689       9.0%       57.8%
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Net revenue                       976    1 097     -11.0%      -41.2%
Gross profit                        591      624      -5.3%      -38.8%
Gross margin                    60.6%    56.9%   3.7 p.p.    2.4 p.p.
SG&A and other                 -134     -148      -9.4%       -7.7%
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EBITDA                              457      454       0.7%      -38.9%
EBITDA margin                 46.8%    41.4%   5.4 p.p.    1.7 p.p.
Depreciation                       -117     -141     -17.3%        2.4%
EBIT                                    340      313       8.8%      -46.3%
EBIT margin                        34.9%    28.5%   6.4 p.p.   -3.3 p.p.
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Net income                        245      208      17.9%      -48.7%
Net margin                       25.1%    18.9%   6.2 p.p.   -3.7 p.p.
Net Debt                             76      158     -51.8%      -71.4%
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