"Very significant" likelihood of Donbas war escalation, Poroshenko says

The likelihood of a serious escalation in the armed conflict in Donbas remains very significant and could prompt a declaration of martial law and another draft wave, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told reporters on Aug. 18. The government also isn’t ruling out a full-scale Russian invasion from all directions. The purpose of the recent escalation by the Russian government is to justify its own steps to undermine the Minsk peace process, including refraining from the next scheduled talks in the Normandy Format in September, he said.

A record number of shootings against Ukrainian targets occurred on the night of Aug. 17, approaching nearly one hundred, the president said. A large portion of these shootings came from high-caliber artillery, he said. “If earlier the shootings involved rifles and mortars and were concentrated only on the conflict line, then the enemy is now concentrating high-caliber fire towards command points and warehouses located 8, 12 and sometimes 22 kilometers from the conflict line,” he said.

Ukraine’s main position remains to “return the aggressor to the negotiating table, force him to fulfill the requirements of the Minsk process and return to the Normandy Format” talks in coordination with its international partners, he said. 

Zenon Zawada: We believe that Putin is using the increased attacks not so much as to undermine the Minsk talks, but to boost his leverage and gain concessions from the West before returning to the Normandy Format talks. Our view is buttressed by an Aug. 17 report on thetimes.co.uk news site that Putin is plotting to get Western concessions on Ukraine, particularly from the outgoing U.S. President Obama, by actively working to improve relations with Turkey, which the Russians are confident is a bigger concern for the West. In this context, the bombardments are a standard tactic in the course of this war to place pressure on Western leaders.

It’s important to distinguish that a significant likelihood of the war escalating in the coming week, an assessment that we agree with, isn’t the same as a full-scale invasion, which we view as highly unlikely. It would not be rational for Russia to attempt to occupy more territory in Ukraine.