War of words and diplomats heats up over Ukraine

In an annual address on April 21, Russian President Vladimir
Putin replied to French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement that clear red
lines need to be drawn by the West regarding Russia’s behavior. “Russia will
draw its own red lines,” Putin declared, along with the promise that if forced
to defend its interests, the response would be “asymmetric, fast and tough.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reacted to
the speech on April 21 in an interview with Reuters. Kuleba stated that he saw
the speech as Putin saying that he’ll act with impunity against the West, but
forbade others to cross the lines that Russia determines.

Kuleba also revealed in the interview that he had
“urged” his colleagues in a meeting of foreign ministers on April 19 to
consider cutting Russia off from the SWIFT payments system if military
aggression occurs.

At the same time, Kuleba does not see any new impetus
or reaction that would trigger military action on the part of the Russians at
this moment.

Also on April 21, Ukraine’s consul in St. Petersburg,
Oleksandr Sosonyuk, left Russia, after being arrested and detained despite his
diplomatic status. In response, the Ukrainian government demanded that “the
senior diplomat of the Russian embassy in Kyiv” leave by the end of April 22.

James Hydzik: April 21
had been seen by some analysts as a possible launch date for military action;
the next is during the May holidays and May 9 in particular. Kuleba’s
interview, at face value at least, signals that unless something changes
military action is not a certainty in the near term. However, the diplomatic
war continuing or another front opening such as renewed trade issues, further
maritime provocations, or a hacking attack, should not be discounted.