War prisoner release, coronavirus fight are top Zelensky successes, poll says

Securing the release of war prisoners and hostages,
combatting the coronavirus and uniting the country have been the biggest success
of the first year of Zelensky presidency, according to a poll of Ukrainians
conducted by the Rating Sociological Service that was released on May 18. About
58% of Ukrainians believe Zelensky was successful in securing the releases, 41%
in combatting the virus and 30% in uniting the country. Zelensky ranked the
worst in reducing the influence of oligarchs in politics (12%), reforming
healthcare (13%) and land reform (15%).

In the year since his May 20 inauguration, President
Zelensky has failed to cope with his most important tasks as identified by the
latest poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
published on May 20. Only about 16% of Ukrainians believe he was successful in
holding accountable for corruption the representatives of the previous
government. Only about 21% believe he succeeded in resolving the war in Donbas,
another 21% believe he succeeded in addressing the economic crisis and 26%
believe he succeeded in reducing corruption among state officials.

About 68% of the public believes Zelensky did a
satisfactory or better job in the first year of his presidency, the Rating poll
reported. About 31% believe his performance was unsatisfactory, the same poll
said. About 57% of the public said it trusts Zelensky, compared to about 37%
who said it doesn’t trust him, the same poll said. About 46% of those polled by
KIIS believe Zelensky’s first year as president was successful, compared to 45%
who believe he was unsuccessful in his first year.

About 34% of decided voters would cast their ballot
for the pro-presidential People’s Servant party, according to the Rating poll,
compared to 31.2% identified by the KIIS poll. About 15.1% would vote for the
Putin-aligned Opposition Platform For Life (17.4% KIIS poll), 14.0% for
European Solidarity led by former president Poroshenko (14.8% KIIS poll), and
9.2% for the populist Fatherland party led by former PM Tymoshenko (8.9% KIIS
poll).

The Rating poll was conducted on May 12 and 13 among
3,000 respondents. The KIIS poll was conducted on May 14-17 among 2,000
respondents.

Zenon Zawada: These polls
confirm there exists a general consensus – which we share – that Zelensky is
failing on what matters most to Ukraine’s economic development, which is
establishing rule of law (including reducing oligarch influence), combatting
corruption, as well as improving healthcare and education.

We believe that his shortcomings haven’t affected his
strong, resilient poll ratings largely because of his celebrity status, and not
because of his identified successes (war prisoner release, coronavirus fight).
That is confirmed by only 14% of the public trusting PM Denys Shmyhal, compared
to 39% distrusting him (according to the Rating poll), despite having been
appointed to his post only in early March (and having no scandals and being
unknown to the public beforehand).

Zelensky’s “celebrity immunity” is also confirmed by
the gradually slipping ratings of The People’s Servant party, which have been
consistently lower than his. As Zelensky continues to disappoint his core
electorate of southeastern Ukrainians (largely by failing to resolve the war in
Donbas), The People’s Servant will continue to lose voters to the Putin-aligned
Opposition Platform, or anti-Western fringe forces like Shariy’s Party, which
has swelled in recent months to about 4.0% support, according to the KIIS poll.