The World Bank weighed in on Jan. 16 in placing
Western pressure on the Poroshenko administration to approve legislation to create
the High Anti-Corruption Court in line with Western standards. The parliment
must amend the president’s submitted bill to meet the standards of the Venice
Commission of the Council of Europe in order for Ukraine to qualify for USD 800
mln in lending. Most of the World Bank’s demands were the same as those mentioned by the IMF but they
most differ in what procedure must be applied to amend the legislation,
reported the eurointegration.com.ua news site, which published a copy of the
letter that was addressed to the Presidential Administration and parliament.
In response to the intensifying pressure, the
Poroshenko administration issued a press release the evening of Jan. 16 in
which the president assured Western diplomats and officials in a meeting that
day that the process of launching the court would begin this year. The
president invited them to “constructive work within the framework of democratic
parliamentary procedures” after the bill is approved in the first reading. At
the same time, he stressed the need to “uphold the Ukrainian Constitution, the
principles of Ukrainian sovereignty and Ukrainian legislation.”
Zenon Zawada: The Western
establishment has found the Achilles Heel of not only the Poroshenko
administration in its campaign of resisting reforms, but the entire Ukrainian
oligarchy. And Poroshenko is resisting this Western pressure not only in his
own self-interest, but in the interests of Ukraine’s ruling elite. The
president’s comments confirm this, indicating that he won’t allow Western
officials to fully determine the conditions of the anti-corruption court.
We expect Poroshenko will lead the effort to approve
the legislation in line with a likely compromise with the IMF that will enable
him to avoid politically risky hikes in natural gas prices that are being
demanded. At this point, it’s hard to say whether Poroshenko will be willing to
concede more in the anti-corruption court, or in the gas price hike, in his
ultimate deal with the IMF to secure the next loan tranche. And it’s hard to
predict what compromises the IMF itself will accept.