Last night Viktor Yanukovych claimed victory in the second round of Ukraine’s presidential elections. With 93.8% of the ballots counted, he leads 48.4% to Yulia Tymoshenko’s 46.0%. Exit polls gave Yanukovych a 3-6 pp lead. Under Ukrainian election law, the highest vote-getter in the runoff wins, even if they get less than 50% of the vote. The Central Election Commission expects to put out a preliminary total count later today. Brad Wells: Yulia Tymoshenko is not expected to be forthcoming with a concession, but exit polls do not favor her, and, importantly, based on available evidence so far, the vote looks to have gone off relatively calmly – election observer missions will weigh in later today with their preliminary reports. Yanukovych will now turn his attention to forming a friendly coalition in the Verkhovna Rada. We do see a chance for Yanukovych to build a coalition in the current parliament without having to resort to pre-term parliamentary elections: Ukrainian politicians are notorious for changing sides as the wind blows. However, if the MPs fail to line up behind him, Yanukovych has said he will not hesitate to call for new elections.