Yanukovych reveals little in nationally televised Q&A

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych participated on Feb. 22 in a nationally televised Q&A with Ukrainian citizens, which was evidently pre-rehearsed. He touched on relevant issues but offered little news. Regarding IMF demands for boosted natural gas prices for households, Yanukovych said Ukrainians wouldn’t face higher prices. Regarding gas transit through Ukraine, Yanukovych said a consortium with the Russian Federation government could be created in 1H13 in which the system is rented, but not sold. Regarding the Russian government’s USD 7 bln gas bill, Yanukovych sold Ukraine won’t pay. Regarding the Association Agreement, Yanukovych said he hopes to sign it this year.

Zenon Zawada: Yanukovych’s Soviet style address merely repeated much of the same soundbytes we’re used to hearing. Such media events have become a negotiating lever rather than a means of communicating with the public. For example, top officials have spoken out both in favor and against boosting household gas prices. So the Q&A didn’t tell us the government’s position on this issue, only indicating that it remains a lever of influence during the IMF talks.

The Yanukovych administration’s approach is to play the European Union against the Russian Federation on virtually all the major foreign policy issues it faces. The EU and Russian governments have caught onto this, setting deadlines on integration into their supraeconomic structures. We expect to see the Yanukovych administration continue this strategy, even after it signs the Association Agreement, which at this point we view with a likelihood of no better than 50/50. We expect little progress to be announced from today’s Ukraine-EU summit in Brussels as the impasse over Yulia Tymoshenko’s future will continue to drag on.