Zelenskiy widens lead in presidential race

The dark horse presidential candidacy of sketch
comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy is gaining momentum, according to results released
on March 5 in the latest poll conducted by the Rating Sociological Group. Among
decided Ukrainians who will vote, 25.1% will cast their ballot for Zelenskiy,
compared to 16.6% for President Poroshenko and 16.2% for former PM Yulia
Tymoshenko. Zelenskiy would win 42% of votes in the second-round runoff,
compared to 24% for Poroshenko. Zelenskiy would earn 37% if his runoff opponent
is Tymoshenko, who would earn 24%. The poll was conducted between Feb. 19 and
28 among 2,500 respondents. The last poll conducted by Rating indicated a smaller lead for Zelenskiy.

Zenon Zawada: In order
for Poroshenko to be re-elected, he will need to damage Zelenskiy’s image among
the public in the next several weeks. However, his ability to do this is rather
limited given that any financial machinations are tiny in comparison to what is
alleged of the president. If Zelenskiy maintains this lead in the polls for the
next two months, which we believe is likely, then it will be too large for
Poroshenko to manipulate the vote in order to claim victory. Nor will he be
able to delay establishing the official vote results under any manufactured
pretext.

Tymoshenko has been focusing her attacks on Poroshenko
because her campaign has likely accepted that Zelenskiy will qualify for the
runoff. But unfortunately for her, Poroshenko has enough control of state
resources to be able to ensure for himself a second-place finish to qualify for
the runoff. And she has limited ability to protest any possible manipulations.